What happened?
Rumours have been circulating for some time that Starfield and Hi Fi Rush are being considered for cross platofrm release but these rumours were given further credence this week when Xbox Era published a story stating that Starfield would be brought to PlayStation 5.
More stories were then release from the Verge and Windows Central confirming that there were rival strategies being fought over internally at Microsoft and the side in favour of more widely publishing games has won out.
The leaks appear to be a direct result of this internal struggle and frustration at the money men for not realising how big of a change this really is.
Why is everyone so worked up?
Hardcore Xbox fans thought they were getting the best of both worlds, and now it appears this future utopia has been ripped away from them. They already have a powerful console and library of games they love. Add Game Pass to that and more exclusives and the logic was that more people would move to Xbox and there would be much closer competition with Sony and Nintendo. The ABK aquisition was supposed to provide a slew of great exlcusives that would hurt Sony and drives sales to Xbox. There was much crowing about the upcoming releases for games with wider appeal, like Indiana Jones and Blade being tied to Xbox and it appears that this strategy may be abandoned.
Some of this is born out of console warring and fan boi overreaction. Some of it is born out of genuine concern over the platform many have invested significant sums of time and money in to, and some is concern over the state of the games industry if Microsoft becomes a glorified 3rd party publisher without a significant foot in the hardware door.
What is everyone worried about?
On the face of it this change makes complete sense. Publish your games to as wide an audience as possible to maximise your chance at profit.. However gaming is an eco system and like any such system has a certain, now long held, status quo. The fear amongst many is that the move to publish Xbox games on rival platforms removes the USP of owning an Xbox. Why purchase an Xbox if all of their biggest games are also available on PlayStation. Why limit your choices? So Xbox hardware sales falter even more as games are published more widely. This causes some other true 3rd party publishers to skip Xbox, or at least deprioritise it (even more than some do already) which causes PS5 to be the only real option for new gamers in the market. The fear is that by abandoning the hardware differentiator/exclusives model which built the games consoles market the Xbox brand will begin its slow inevitable death spiral.
This lack of competition leads Sony as the market leader to push the boundaries of what is acceptable in terms of pricing and innovation. $80 games are on the horizon, and with little in the way of console competition, few reasons for Sony to innovate. At least not in the same way they need to if Microsoft are snapping at their heels with hot new products for your living room.
Why now?
It appears, or at least is rumoured that, Microsoft executives have decided that they are leaving far too much money on the table and that the costs of runnging Game Pass are eating in to their margins.
Games like Starfield, HiFi Rush, Sea of Thieves and even The Master Chief collection of Halo games have all been rumoured to be up for consideration of publishing more widely which has led many to speculate the end of Xbox, at least as we know it.
The logic of publishing to the widest audience possible is sound, as long as you dont have any other interests in the same space. But this isnt true for Microsoft. They have an existing gaming platform, which could be seriously damaged, or at the very least undermined, if people decide that all the games are on PlayStation any way so why bother with Xbox.
What do I expect Phil to announce?
Whilst I could make a case for a doomsday scenario where Xbox abandons its own plans for hardware dominance to become the worlds largest owner of valuable gaming IPs, or even a recommitment to Xbox exclusives, day 1 access for Game Pass and a recommitment to take on Sony at their own game. But what I expect next weeks statement to do is tread some kind of middle ground, with the strategy evolving over the coming months, and on a game by game basis.
Phil will reitterate Xbox commitment to its own platform, stating they believe it is still the best place to play games, but that, in the spirit of “when we all play, we all win” they will be publishing a limited set of Microsoft IPs on alternative platforms. These are likely to include Starfield, Sea of Thieves and Hi Fi Rush. I also believe there will be some changes to Game Pass, perhaps with some limited run ads or a limiting of some 1st party day 1 access. I also expect ABK games to cycled in and out of the library on a regular basis, starting with some of the older games first. This feels like it makes sense because if nothing else the library is so huge already that discoverability must be a real concern. Also dumping all of the ABK games limits their impact. However if they are drip fed in to the catalogue each new addition to Game Pass becomes its own event
We all assumed this would be based on the long held strategy that Microsoft would offer a gaming slate that couldnt be found anywhere else. Now it appears they may want their games played everywhere, no matter the device you use.
Where now?
Those of us who have been looking at Microsofts strategy for Xbox have long held the view that they see the long term future of gaming as streaming to any hardware with a screen. They lost the last hardware generation and are losing this one, with all the key indicators pointing to that position not changing for the duration of this generation. We all assumed this would be based on the long held strategy that Microsoft would offer a gaming slate that couldnt be found anywhere else. Now it appears they may want their games played everywhere, no matter the device you use.
Twice the bits 
Leave a comment