Battlefield 2042 is in a lot of trouble. Reports today suggest that Dice have decided to cut their losses and start again with a new modern shooter. Frankly, I think this might be best for all concerned. The game has been a dumpster fire from minute 1 and clearly still needs a lot of work.

Player numbers continue to be very low. There are still reports of bugs and Season 1 has launched to what can only be described as a tepid response.

One map in 6 months isn’t going to save this game.

Tom Henderson over on twitter reports on rumours that Dice have pulled the plug on active development, cutting their losses, and moving 2042 into a maintenance mode. Presumably, they will fix bugs and add small levels of content, but the bulk of their staff are working on other things.

EA have released a statement refuting this but as Henderson points out actions speak louder than words and EA’s commitment to this game isn’t showing in their output.

But this got me thinking. If one of the 3 big shooters from last year is already, for intents and purposes, dead and Call of Duty Vanguard is going to get buried by Modern Warfare 2 and Warzone 2, then where does that leave Halo Infinite? What difference will a Battle Royal really make?

The BR market is huge with Apex legends having 138,000 concurrent players, Fortnite has 350 million registered players, and Warzone had 60 million registered players in 2020.

The money generated is massive with an estimated ten billion earned this year and projected to reach nineteen billion by the end of this decade.

So, it’s no surprise that Microsoft want some of that action. They make 30% on whatever Epic sells through the game on Xbox so I suspect they are looking at the other 70% the publisher is taking home with envious eyes.

We already know, or suspect, that Halo Infinite was developed as a Hero shooter, to take on that recent trend so we know this is something Microsoft, or whoever decides these things at 343, has been looking at for a long time and this is clearly about the money. They couldn’t make it work for the main Halo title so employed certain affinity to create a Battle Royale like mode for Halo.

Now let me look at this pessimistically.
This is an increasingly crowded market with Apex, PUBG, Fortnite, Valorant, and Warzone all trying to tempt players. Also consider that a new Warzone is being released alongside Modern Warfare 2 which is going to receive a lot of hype! These games are already established or have momentum on their side. They are also all quite social games and the network effect of this is powerful. If all your friends are on one game, it’s much harder to get people to try a different experience.

Why would anyone play this?
Halo players like arena shooters, its why we play Halo. We like the fast-paced action and constant gun play that you only get in arena shooters. And BR players like that game mode. They like the different loadouts, attachments, and the tactics that larger maps require.

So how does a game mode which is neither of those things help Halo? Not that there isnt room for innovation in the shooter space but that just ramps up the pressure. This game not only has to be good, but it has to show a paradigm shift away from the current trends.

The pressure for this game mode to land, and land hard is huge but why would anyone play it?

The hopeful viewpoint
The hopeful viewpoint is that if it plays like a BR but incorporates the same great gameplay we are used to in Halo Infinite then fresh players will be attracted to it. Combined with the usual Microsoft marketing push this game could be a genre defining and finally take on Destiny 2 in some way in the PVE space. Although this game is apparently PvPvE.

Personally, if it plays anything like Halo 5 Warzone I’ll be pretty happy. I always preferred it to Big Team Battle. The mix of vehicles and PvE objectives really added something to the core experience which, in Halo, can get pretty sweaty.

If this new mode can win over the core fan base and the hype builds, then this game has a shot. But if it launches with any significant or game breaking bugs, and the big Halo content creators and fans don’t like it, then not only could it be dead on arrival but then it could also be the death of Halo Infinite.